Middle Manager Layoff Methodology Rebuild

Matthew Boyle at Bloomberg Businessweek was refreshing a multi-year series on middle manager layoffs for a major feature. The prior methodology had a degraded-signal problem nobody had caught. I caught it, rebuilt the methodology, and defended it on record.

The brief

Boyle needed updated annual share of S&P 500 layoffs by seniority through 2024–25 — refreshing a series that had run for several years. Tight deadline. The findings would appear attributed in a Businessweek feature.

What I did

• Refreshed the annual share of S&P 500 layoffs by seniority (chart + CSV) through 2024–25
• Identified a degraded-signal problem in the prior methodology: the 60-day no-new-role proxy was misleading for 2025 given Amazon's October timing and the broader slowdown in white-collar hiring — roles were taking longer to appear, not because people weren't laid off but because the labour market had slowed
• Built the "excess departures" methodology as a more defensible alternative: monthly exits above a rolling baseline, rather than a fixed proxy window
• Explained and defended the new methodology on record
• Delivered a title-level breakdown of which Manager-titles were hit hardest (Project Manager ranked first)
• Secured an on-record quote attributed to Alex Hamilton, Insights Lead at LDT

The result

Bloomberg Businessweek feature in production as of late April 2026. On-record quote secured. LDT credited. Boyle confirmed the feature is ongoing.

What this demonstrates

Methodology stewardship. Catching a signal problem before it reaches publication — and building a more defensible alternative under deadline — is the clearest example of what separates a data partner from a data vendor.

A vendor delivers what was asked for. A partner asks whether what was asked for is actually sound.

Before: Prior methodology (60-day no-new-role proxy) was producing misleading signals for 2025, given changed market conditions. Nobody had flagged it.

After: New "excess departures" methodology built, explained, and defended on record. Businessweek feature in production with attribution confirmed.